Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AS 463 at 13:25, with a 32% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 463 Alaska	SEA 13:25	CMH 20:41	32%	7%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SEA 00:07 → ORD 06:05AA 379	1h 11m Chicago	ORD 07:16 → CMH 09:37AA 3414 · flown by Envoy	6h 30m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:20 → MSP 05:32DL 953	1h 38m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → CMH 10:02DL 2772	6h 42m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:26 → ATL 08:15DL 652	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → CMH 11:48DL 1522	8h 22m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:45 → DTW 17:04DL 2324	2h 50m Detroit	DTW 19:54 → CMH 21:02DL 5838 · flown by Republic	8h 17m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	SEA 07:29 → BOS 16:00DL 459	3h 25m Boston	BOS 19:25 → CMH 21:50DL 5629 · flown by Republic	11h 21m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 17:25 → CMH 19:03DL 2786	10h 03m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	SEA 12:13 → MSP 17:29DL 536	2h 46m Minneapolis	MSP 20:15 → CMH 23:07DL 1356	7h 54m	98%	78%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	52m Denver	DEN 09:35 → CMH 14:28UA 480	6h 28m	88%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SEA 10:22 → DFW 16:30AA 707	1h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:37 → CMH 21:19AA 1348	7h 57m	70%	41%
United Details →	SEA 10:52 → ORD 17:05UA 2835	51m Chicago	ORD 17:56 → CMH 20:20UA 1278	6h 28m	47%	22%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON