Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Portland, leaving 19:22, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Hebron on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 558 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:29	CVG 18:47	17%	4%	0.8%	89%
AS 520 Alaska	SEA 13:47	CVG 20:59	30%	6%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:07 → BOS 08:15DL 473	3h 21m Boston	BOS 11:36 → CVG 14:12DL 5598 · flown by Republic	11h 05m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:20 → MSP 05:32DL 953	1h 42m Minneapolis	MSP 07:14 → CVG 10:03DL 954	6h 43m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:26 → ATL 08:15DL 652	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → CVG 11:28DL 3160	8h 02m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943	1h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 12:47 → CVG 15:39DL 1776	6h 34m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128	1h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:40 → CVG 15:03DL 2273	6h 33m	96%	81%
Alaska Details →	SEA 17:59 → PDX 18:56AS 2302 · flown by Horizon	2h 36m Portland	PDX 21:32 → CVG 04:33 +1AS 2619	7h 34m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	SEA 12:13 → MSP 17:29DL 536	2h 51m Minneapolis	MSP 20:20 → CVG 23:11DL 1469	7h 58m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42DL 812	1h 18m Detroit	DTW 14:00 → CVG 15:16DL 5446 · flown by Endeavor	6h 46m	96%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SEA 10:22 → DFW 16:30AA 707	1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:35 → CVG 21:04AA 799	7h 42m	68%	40%
United Details →	SEA 10:52 → ORD 17:05UA 2835	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 18:05 → CVG 20:32UA 1732	6h 40m	66%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON