Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 786 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–39%.

Safest bet that day DL 786 SEA 07:20 → DCA 15:21 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AS 2 SEA 13:46 → DCA 21:59 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 786 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:20	DCA 15:21	12%	6%	0.9%	91%
AS 4 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:00	DCA 16:16	23%	5%	0.7%	86%
AS 2 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:46	DCA 21:59	39%	11%	0.9%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	48m Denver	DEN 09:31 → DCA 15:00UA 789	7h 00m	83%	68%
Delta Details →	SEA 12:13 → MSP 17:29DL 536	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 18:35 → DCA 22:02DL 2962	6h 49m	89%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON