Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2748 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 2748 SEA 05:05 → DFW 11:02 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 727 SEA 17:40 → DFW 23:39 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2748 American Flight history →	SEA 05:05	DFW 11:02	9%	5%	1.1%	94%
AA 1667 American Flight history →	SEA 07:26	DFW 13:20	17%	8%	1.0%	89%
AS 424 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 00:24	DFW 06:15	20%	5%	0.9%	80%
DL 803 Delta Flight history →	SEA 09:15	DFW 15:13	23%	8%	0.8%	81%
AS 321 Alaska	SEA 08:44	DFW 14:35	26%	6%	0.9%	no record
AS 542 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:58	DFW 23:48	29%	7%	1.0%	80%
DL 870 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:55	DFW 23:55	31%	11%	0.9%	73%
AS 549 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 12:13	DFW 18:21	32%	7%	0.9%	72%
AA 2003 American Flight history →	SEA 23:22	DFW 05:18	32%	8%	1.3%	61%
AS 341 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:59	DFW 17:00	33%	7%	0.9%	64%
AA 707 American Flight history →	SEA 10:22	DFW 16:30	35%	9%	0.9%	79%worse than usual
AA 757 American Flight history →	SEA 15:21	DFW 21:24	37%	12%	1.3%	74%worse than usual
AA 767 American Flight history →	SEA 11:40	DFW 17:50	38%	11%	0.9%	68%
AA 717 American Flight history →	SEA 13:57	DFW 20:04	38%	12%	1.1%	74%worse than usual
AA 727 American Flight history →	SEA 17:40	DFW 23:39	39%	12%	1.7%	60%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	49m Denver	DEN 09:32 → DFW 12:31UA 1350	5h 31m	84%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON