tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2191 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SEA 14:08 ELP 18:36 39% 4% 3.8% 61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach El Paso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SEA 07:05 → IAH 13:31UA 2135 3h 27m Houston IAH 16:58 → ELP 18:02UA 3983 · flown by Mesa 9h 57m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 2h 39m Denver DEN 11:22 → ELP 13:15UA 2128 7h 15m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → SEA 09:01 → ATL 16:52DL 560 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 19:39 → ELP 20:50DL 1713 10h 49m 97% 64%
AmericanDetails → SEA 05:05 → DFW 11:02AA 2748 3h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:50 → ELP 15:43AA 1681 9h 38m 98% 61%
AmericanDetails → SEA 13:57 → DFW 20:04AA 717 2h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:59 → ELP 23:46AA 1607 8h 49m 95% 49%
AmericanDetails → SEA 11:38 → PHX 14:42AA 4117 · flown by Envoy 1h 28m Phoenix PHX 16:10 → ELP 18:36AA 2875 5h 58m 85% 48%
AmericanDetails → SEA 10:22 → DFW 16:30AA 707 3h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:23 → ELP 21:15AA 1514 9h 53m 97% 47%
AmericanDetails → SEA 13:50 → ORD 20:16AA 2966 1h 19m Chicago ORD 21:35 → ELP 23:43AA 3948 · flown by Envoy 8h 53m 88% 40%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SEA 14:34 → DEN 18:23UA 333 57m Denver DEN 19:20 → ELP 21:11UA 333 5h 37m 63% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON