tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Fort Lauderdale on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 51% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 516 Alaska Flight history → SEA 08:23 FLL 17:27 27% 9% 1.0% 83%
DL 338 Delta Flight history → SEA 13:00 FLL 21:52 27% 10% 0.9% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:20 → MSP 05:32DL 953 3h 18m Minneapolis MSP 08:50 → FLL 13:25DL 673 10h 05m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:26 → ATL 08:15DL 652 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 11:25 → FLL 13:20DL 2063 9h 54m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 1h 15m Denver DEN 09:58 → FLL 16:08UA 1214 8h 08m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42DL 812 3h 14m Detroit DTW 15:56 → FLL 19:00DL 1037 10h 30m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → SEA 09:45 → DTW 17:04DL 2324 3h 40m Detroit DTW 20:44 → FLL 23:42DL 2296 10h 57m 100% 73%
UnitedDetails → SEA 07:05 → IAH 13:31UA 2135 2h 49m Houston IAH 16:20 → FLL 20:07UA 277 10h 02m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128 2h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → FLL 17:28DL 745 8h 58m 98% 69%
DeltaDetails → SEA 17:30 → LAX 20:13DL 2861 2h 46m Los Angeles LAX 22:59 → FLL 07:05 +1DL 477 10h 35m 96% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SEA 09:01 → ATL 16:52DL 560 53m Atlanta ATL 17:45 → FLL 19:43DL 1670 7h 42m 71% 47%
AmericanDetails → SEA 00:07 → ORD 06:05AA 379 48m Chicago ORD 06:53 → FLL 11:02AA 1424 7h 55m 51% 39%
UnitedDetails → SEA 10:52 → ORD 17:05UA 2835 1h 00m Chicago ORD 18:05 → FLL 22:15UA 463 8h 23m 66% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON