Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 351 at 08:25 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–41%.

Safest bet that day DL 351 SEA 08:25 → HNL 11:34 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AS 268 SEA 20:50 → HNL 23:49 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 351 Delta Flight history →	SEA 08:25	HNL 11:34	21%	6%	0.7%	86%
AS 821 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:11	HNL 10:16	27%	6%	1.0%	72%
DL 419 Delta Flight history →	SEA 16:35	HNL 19:53	30%	7%	0.7%	74%
AS 853 Alaska	SEA 08:59	HNL 12:05	36%	6%	1.0%	no record
AS 451 Alaska	SEA 19:04	HNL 22:04	38%	9%	1.1%	no record
AS 899 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 12:11	HNL 15:22	38%	8%	1.0%	53%
AS 626 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:07	HNL 13:12	41%	9%	1.0%	63%
AS 268 Alaska	SEA 20:50	HNL 23:49	41%	10%	1.1%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	SEA 10:15 → OGG 13:19AS 929	1h 45m Kahului	OGG 15:04 → HNL 15:45AS 1145	8h 30m	95%	71%
Alaska Details →	SEA 13:53 → OGG 16:59AS 223	1h 36m Kahului	OGG 18:35 → HNL 19:29AS 1175	8h 36m	89%	71%
Alaska Details →	SEA 11:28 → LIH 14:40AS 258	1h 33m Lihue	LIH 16:13 → HNL 17:06AS 1124	8h 38m	89%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON