Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2135 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 2135 SEA 07:05 → IAH 13:31 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AS 438 SEA 10:52 → IAH 17:16 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2135 United Flight history →	SEA 07:05	IAH 13:31	15%	6%	0.8%	92%
UA 2702 United	SEA 00:08	IAH 06:17	16%	6%	1.1%	no record
UA 1752 United	SEA 12:07	IAH 18:43	22%	10%	0.8%	no record
UA 1660 United Flight history →	SEA 17:00	IAH 23:26	25%	8%	0.9%	84%
AS 240 Alaska	SEA 17:36	IAH 23:47	32%	8%	0.9%	no record
AS 438 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:52	IAH 17:16	40%	7%	0.7%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128	59m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:29 → IAH 13:31DL 1532	6h 01m	93%	73%
American Details →	SEA 05:05 → DFW 11:02AA 2748	54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:56 → IAH 13:11AA 1397	6h 06m	88%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON