tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AS 2117 at 09:06, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2117 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history → SEA 09:06 ICT 14:34 17% 7% 1.2% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wichita on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Wichita is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:26 → ATL 08:15DL 652 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 11:14 → ICT 12:34DL 828 10h 08m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 1h 12m Denver DEN 09:55 → ICT 12:27UA 5497 · flown by SkyWest 5h 27m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943 1h 59m Minneapolis MSP 13:23 → ICT 15:15DL 3807 · flown by SkyWest 7h 10m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569 2h 38m Atlanta ATL 16:31 → ICT 17:47DL 2128 9h 47m 100% 76%
AmericanDetails → SEA 07:26 → DFW 13:20AA 1667 3h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:07 → ICT 18:30AA 3691 · flown by Envoy 9h 04m 97% 67%
UnitedDetails → SEA 14:34 → DEN 18:23UA 333 2h 46m Denver DEN 21:09 → ICT 23:44UA 4755 · flown by SkyWest 7h 10m 97% 67%
UnitedDetails → SEA 08:57 → DEN 12:45UA 1505 1h 14m Denver DEN 13:59 → ICT 16:34UA 5454 · flown by SkyWest 5h 37m 88% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON