tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 3026 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SEA 12:32 IDA 15:28 21% 8% 0.9% 83%
AS 3422 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SEA 20:12 IDA 23:09 26% 8% 1.6% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Idaho Falls on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Idaho Falls is 1 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128 2h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → IDA 12:18DL 3765 · flown by SkyWest 5h 48m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 3h 02m Denver DEN 11:45 → IDA 13:25UA 2383 7h 25m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → SEA 11:09 → SLC 14:15DL 1265 2h 55m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → IDA 18:18DL 3895 · flown by SkyWest 6h 09m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → SEA 11:40 → DFW 17:50AA 767 2h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:05 → IDA 22:11AA 6467 · flown by SkyWest 9h 31m 93% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON