Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 24–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 624 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 22:39	IND 05:44	24%	5%	0.8%	79%
AS 500 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:09	IND 16:16	27%	5%	0.8%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:20 → MSP 05:32DL 953	3h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 08:50 → IND 11:28DL 2456	8h 08m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:26 → ATL 08:15DL 652	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013	9h 10m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:07 → BOS 08:15DL 473	1h 05m Boston	BOS 09:20 → IND 11:58DL 5628 · flown by Republic	8h 51m	92%	85%
American Details →	SEA 00:07 → ORD 06:05AA 379	2h 23m Chicago	ORD 08:28 → IND 10:42AA 3907 · flown by Envoy	7h 35m	100%	85%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 15m Denver	DEN 09:58 → IND 14:35UA 1522	6h 35m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943	1h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 12:55 → IND 15:33DL 2910	6h 28m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 23:04 → IND 00:41 +1DL 2657	9h 42m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	SEA 07:29 → BOS 16:00DL 459	1h 45m Boston	BOS 17:45 → IND 20:34DL 5616 · flown by Republic	10h 05m	95%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SEA 10:52 → ORD 17:05UA 2835	1h 03m Chicago	ORD 18:08 → IND 20:27UA 3628 · flown by Republic	6h 35m	69%	42%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	47m Atlanta	ATL 20:51 → IND 22:27DL 1482	7h 28m	52%	41%
American Details →	SEA 11:38 → PHX 14:42AA 4117 · flown by Envoy	48m Phoenix	PHX 15:30 → IND 22:01AA 1255	7h 23m	67%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON