Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 429 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–35%.

Safest bet that day DL 429 SEA 07:15 → JFK 15:49 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 34 SEA 13:59 → JFK 21:55 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 429 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:15	JFK 15:49	11%	5%	0.9%	88%
DL 1044 Delta	SEA 16:04	JFK 00:04	21%	7%	1.5%	no record
DL 415 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:34	JFK 20:15	24%	9%	0.9%	74%
DL 452 Delta Flight history →	SEA 22:40	JFK 06:50	24%	6%	1.3%	86%
AS 22 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 23:15	JFK 07:38	25%	4%	1.3%	81%
AS 16 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:00	JFK 14:53	27%	5%	1.0%	63%
AS 26 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:28	JFK 17:23	28%	6%	0.9%	86%worse than usual
B6 264 JetBlue Flight history →	SEA 22:19	JFK 06:39	35%	14%	1.8%	74%
AS 34 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:59	JFK 21:55	37%	9%	1.2%	76%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 00:20 → MSP 05:32DL 953	1h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 06:55 → JFK 10:39DL 2969	7h 19m	95%	88%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:07 → BOS 08:15DL 473	50m Boston	BOS 09:05 → JFK 10:24DL 5720 · flown by Republic	7h 17m	83%	75%
Alaska Details →	SEA 19:22 → PDX 20:17AS 2372 · flown by Horizon	1h 11m Portland	PDX 21:28 → JFK 05:28 +1AS 336	7h 06m	83%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON