Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AS 61 at 07:08 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–34%.

Safest bet that day AS 61 SEA 07:08 → JNU 08:44 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AS 486 SEA 20:09 → JNU 21:43 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 61 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:08	JNU 08:44	21%	4%	1.1%	86%
DL 2169 Delta Flight history →	SEA 16:50	JNU 18:26	26%	7%	0.9%	83%
AS 209 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:24	JNU 12:56	33%	5%	1.0%	75%
AS 486 Alaska	SEA 20:09	JNU 21:43	34%	7%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON