Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 23–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 340 SEA 14:30 → KOA 17:35 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest AS 238 SEA 17:50 → KOA 21:03 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 340 Delta Flight history →	SEA 14:30	KOA 17:35	23%	8%	1.0%	78%
AS 709 Alaska	SEA 09:59	KOA 13:08	24%	5%	1.0%	no record
AS 238 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:50	KOA 21:03	24%	6%	1.1%	77%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	SEA 07:11 → HNL 10:16AS 821	1h 45m Honolulu	HNL 12:01 → KOA 13:03AS 1108	8h 52m	95%	76%
Alaska Details →	SEA 12:11 → HNL 15:22AS 899	2h 08m Honolulu	HNL 17:30 → KOA 18:16AS 1158	9h 05m	92%	74%
Alaska Details →	SEA 10:07 → HNL 13:12AS 626	2h 02m Honolulu	HNL 15:14 → KOA 16:01AS 1138	8h 54m	95%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON