Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AS 65 at 07:03 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29–31%.

Safest bet that day AS 65 SEA 07:03 → KTN 08:13 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 67 SEA 15:37 → KTN 16:43 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 65 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:03	KTN 08:13	18%	4%	0.7%	88%
AS 7004 Alaska	SEA 14:38	KTN 15:41	29%	7%	0.8%	no record
AS 69 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:38	KTN 19:43	30%	7%	1.1%	81%worse than usual
AS 67 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:37	KTN 16:43	31%	6%	0.9%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON