Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 18 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4769 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–47%.

Safest bet that day WN 4769 SEA 05:00 → LAS 07:27 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3757 SEA 20:20 → LAS 22:52 · 47% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4769 Southwest	SEA 05:00	LAS 07:27	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 2922 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:25	LAS 10:01	11%	4%	0.8%	92%
AS 612 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:48	LAS 10:29	16%	3%	0.7%	88%
DL 2905 Delta Flight history →	SEA 09:50	LAS 12:25	20%	5%	0.8%	85%
DL 2880 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:05	LAS 13:42	26%	7%	0.9%	82%
DL 2949 Delta Flight history →	SEA 20:34	LAS 23:10	30%	10%	0.9%	81%worse than usual
DL 2955 Delta Flight history →	SEA 16:25	LAS 19:00	30%	11%	0.8%	78%
AS 738 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:31	LAS 14:16	34%	7%	0.7%	80%worse than usual
F9 4204 Frontier Flight history →	SEA 21:52	LAS 00:30	36%	14%	1.4%	70%
AS 704 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 20:15	LAS 22:55	36%	10%	0.9%	89%worse than usual
AS 212 Alaska	SEA 10:43	LAS 13:09	39%	6%	0.7%	no record
AS 523 Alaska	SEA 18:24	LAS 20:52	41%	12%	0.9%	no record
WN 2234 Southwest	SEA 11:35	LAS 14:03	41%	10%	0.6%	no record
AS 768 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 20:23	LAS 22:50	42%	11%	0.9%	80%worse than usual
AS 728 Alaska	SEA 13:39	LAS 16:05	43%	9%	0.8%	no record
AS 552 Alaska	SEA 15:36	LAS 18:03	44%	11%	0.8%	no record
AS 678 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:23	LAS 19:51	44%	11%	0.9%	67%worse than usual
WN 3757 Southwest	SEA 20:20	LAS 22:52	47%	15%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON