Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AS 418 at 07:48 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–28%.

Safest bet that day AS 418 SEA 07:48 → MCI 13:21 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 2256 SEA 17:30 → MCI 23:00 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 418 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:48	MCI 13:21	13%	4%	1.0%	89%
AS 497 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:24	MCI 23:48	25%	6%	0.9%	81%
DL 2256 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:30	MCI 23:00	28%	11%	0.8%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON