Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 448 at 23:15 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 25–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 448 SEA 23:15 → MCO 07:40 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AS 346 SEA 08:59 → MCO 17:24 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 448 Delta Flight history →	SEA 23:15	MCO 07:40	19%	4%	0.9%	85%
AS 390 Alaska	SEA 21:29	MCO 05:52	23%	4%	0.8%	no record
DL 328 Delta Flight history →	SEA 08:51	MCO 17:35	25%	9%	0.9%	75%
AS 420 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:28	MCO 23:55	25%	7%	0.8%	82%
AS 346 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:59	MCO 17:24	31%	8%	0.8%	88%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 00:26 → ATL 08:15DL 652	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 09:25 → MCO 10:57DL 1658	7h 31m	93%	81%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 27m Denver	DEN 10:10 → MCO 16:04UA 2354	8h 04m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943	1h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → MCO 17:04DL 2225	7h 59m	95%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON