tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3796 Southwest SEA 05:30 MDW 11:29 5% 2% 0.8% no record
WN 3759 Southwest SEA 00:10 MDW 06:10 9% 3% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:26 → ATL 08:15DL 652 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417 9h 30m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:20 → MSP 05:32DL 953 1h 23m Minneapolis MSP 06:55 → MDW 08:37DL 4712 · flown by Endeavor 6h 17m 95% 79%
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569 1h 22m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728 8h 15m 96% 71%
DeltaDetails → SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554 1h 11m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076 8h 16m 82% 59%
DeltaDetails → SEA 09:45 → DTW 17:04DL 2324 1h 03m Detroit DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor 6h 44m 83% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON