Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 31–36% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 506 SEA 08:09 → MIA 17:16 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AS 305 SEA 08:12 → MIA 17:17 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 506 Delta Flight history →	SEA 08:09	MIA 17:16	31%	9%	1.6%	80%worse than usual
AA 1471 American Flight history →	SEA 20:45	MIA 05:37	33%	8%	0.9%	74%
AS 305 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:12	MIA 17:17	36%	9%	1.3%	80%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 12:13 → MSP 17:29DL 536	1h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 18:53 → MIA 23:35DL 2187	8h 22m	94%	71%
American Details →	SEA 00:07 → ORD 06:05AA 379	1h 04m Chicago	ORD 07:09 → MIA 11:20AA 1875	8h 13m	84%	66%
Delta Details →	SEA 17:59 → SLC 21:06DL 1165	1h 54m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:00 → MIA 05:40 +1DL 2040	8h 41m	91%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON