Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, QX 2294 at 14:30, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


QX 2294 Horizon	SEA 14:30	MRY 16:55	25%	6%	1.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Monterey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	2h 32m Denver	DEN 11:15 → MRY 13:10UA 5438 · flown by SkyWest	8h 10m	99%	79%
Alaska Details →	SEA 15:59 → SAN 18:46AS 765	3h 40m San Diego	SAN 22:26 → MRY 23:58AS 3005 · flown by SkyWest	7h 59m	99%	75%
Alaska Details →	SEA 08:51 → SAN 11:35AS 1367	1h 18m San Diego	SAN 12:53 → MRY 14:28AS 3346 · flown by SkyWest	5h 37m	87%	62%
United Details →	SEA 14:34 → DEN 18:23UA 333	1h 09m Denver	DEN 19:32 → MRY 21:21UA 1822	6h 47m	82%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON