Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OO 3332 at 09:54 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27–35%.

Safest bet that day OO 3332 SEA 09:54 → MSO 12:26 · 23% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 604 SEA 19:36 → MSO 22:02 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 3332 SkyWest	SEA 09:54	MSO 12:26	23%	8%	0.7%	no record
AS 660 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 12:09	MSO 14:35	27%	6%	0.9%	88%worse than usual
AS 604 Alaska	SEA 19:36	MSO 22:02	35%	8%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON