Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 943 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 943 SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AS 527 SEA 18:40 → MSP 23:55 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 943 Delta Flight history →	SEA 06:05	MSP 11:24	7%	3%	0.7%	96%
DL 953 Delta Flight history →	SEA 00:20	MSP 05:32	10%	3%	0.7%	91%
DL 536 Delta Flight history →	SEA 12:13	MSP 17:29	15%	4%	0.7%	91%
DL 942 Delta Flight history →	SEA 14:30	MSP 19:54	16%	5%	0.8%	80%
AS 555 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:35	MSP 13:57	16%	3%	0.8%	86%
DL 949 Delta Flight history →	SEA 18:05	MSP 23:30	19%	9%	1.1%	83%
AS 509 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:28	MSP 18:36	25%	5%	0.8%	86%worse than usual
AS 527 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:40	MSP 23:55	26%	10%	1.1%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON