Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching New Orleans on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 568 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:37	MSY 16:16	29%	5%	0.8%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:26 → ATL 08:15DL 652	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542	9h 11m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:07 → BOS 08:15DL 473	3h 05m Boston	BOS 11:20 → MSY 13:56DL 1398	11h 49m	100%	85%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 07m Denver	DEN 09:50 → MSY 13:39UA 2273	6h 39m	97%	83%
American Details →	SEA 00:07 → ORD 06:05AA 379	2h 36m Chicago	ORD 08:41 → MSY 11:05AA 4040 · flown by Envoy	8h 58m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943	1h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → MSY 15:25DL 2695	7h 20m	95%	78%
Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128	55m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:25 → MSY 13:47DL 2100	6h 17m	92%	78%
United Details →	SEA 07:05 → IAH 13:31UA 2135	1h 31m Houston	IAH 15:02 → MSY 16:32UA 2738	7h 27m	94%	76%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → MSY 23:43DL 2224	9h 44m	98%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SEA 09:01 → ATL 16:52DL 560	55m Atlanta	ATL 17:47 → MSY 18:26DL 678	7h 25m	75%	51%
American Details →	SEA 13:50 → ORD 20:16AA 2966	1h 09m Chicago	ORD 21:25 → MSY 23:58AA 3256	8h 08m	74%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON