Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1575 at 08:25 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 1575 SEA 08:25 → OAK 10:33 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 706 SEA 20:47 → OAK 22:56 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1575 Southwest	SEA 08:25	OAK 10:33	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 533 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:09	OAK 11:15	23%	4%	0.8%	92%worse than usual
WN 4306 Southwest	SEA 13:15	OAK 15:24	32%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 410 Southwest	SEA 21:25	OAK 23:35	34%	12%	0.6%	no record
AS 1328 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:45	OAK 18:53	34%	9%	0.9%	73%
AS 706 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 20:47	OAK 22:56	36%	11%	1.0%	77%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON