Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 16:01, is the safest bet: 47% chance of reaching Oklahoma City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 50% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 405 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:18	OKC 13:57	21%	3%	0.8%	92%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oklahoma City is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:26 → ATL 08:15DL 652	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → OKC 12:14DL 2020	9h 48m	99%	86%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 22m Denver	DEN 10:05 → OKC 13:01UA 5324 · flown by SkyWest	6h 01m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	SEA 07:15 → SLC 10:26DL 2858	3h 14m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:40 → OKC 17:03DL 3882 · flown by SkyWest	7h 48m	95%	81%
Delta Details →	SEA 13:30 → SLC 16:40DL 1120	3h 50m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:30 → OKC 23:52DL 3703 · flown by SkyWest	8h 22m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 22:44 → OKC 23:52DL 2423	9h 53m	97%	75%
United Details →	SEA 07:05 → IAH 13:31UA 2135	3h 13m Houston	IAH 16:44 → OKC 18:29UA 6334 · flown by Mesa	9h 24m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	1h 22m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → OKC 16:22DL 2862	8h 22m	96%	73%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:01 → ATL 16:52DL 560	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 19:05 → OKC 20:15DL 2784	9h 14m	96%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SEA 16:01 → DEN 19:44UA 757	58m Denver	DEN 20:42 → OKC 23:29UA 4727 · flown by SkyWest	5h 28m	66%	47%
American Details →	SEA 10:22 → DFW 16:30AA 707	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:21 → OKC 18:33AA 2734	6h 11m	50%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON