Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AS 312 at 09:03, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 312 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:03	OMA 14:16	18%	4%	0.7%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Omaha is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SEA 00:07 → ORD 06:05AA 379	1h 52m Chicago	ORD 07:57 → OMA 09:42AA 4042 · flown by Envoy	7h 35m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:20 → MSP 05:32DL 953	3h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 08:50 → OMA 10:12DL 3831 · flown by SkyWest	7h 52m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128	1h 32m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:02 → OMA 13:27DL 4114 · flown by SkyWest	5h 57m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:26 → ATL 08:15DL 652	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 11:26 → OMA 12:46DL 1125	10h 20m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:45 → DTW 17:04DL 2324	2h 41m Detroit	DTW 19:45 → OMA 20:53DL 3715 · flown by SkyWest	9h 08m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	SEA 07:15 → SLC 10:26DL 2858	3h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:30 → OMA 16:51DL 3896 · flown by SkyWest	7h 36m	95%	83%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 30m Denver	DEN 10:13 → OMA 12:58UA 1633	5h 58m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42DL 812	3h 18m Detroit	DTW 16:00 → OMA 17:10DL 3889 · flown by SkyWest	9h 40m	99%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON