Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 18 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2618 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–38%.

Safest bet that day UA 2618 SEA 07:00 → ORD 13:15 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2966 SEA 13:50 → ORD 20:16 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2618 United Flight history →	SEA 07:00	ORD 13:15	13%	7%	0.7%	92%
AA 1872 American	SEA 06:25	ORD 12:30	13%	8%	1.0%	no record
DL 2055 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:20	ORD 13:28	15%	8%	0.8%	85%
AA 379 American Flight history →	SEA 00:07	ORD 05:55	16%	7%	0.8%	92%
UA 747 United Flight history →	SEA 23:11	ORD 05:18	23%	8%	0.9%	86%
AS 265 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:34	ORD 14:46	28%	9%	1.0%	77%
AS 285 Alaska	SEA 23:41	ORD 05:41	31%	5%	0.9%	no record
DL 2108 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:40	ORD 23:38	32%	15%	0.9%	76%
AS 538 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:48	ORD 23:59	33%	10%	1.1%	80%worse than usual
UA 2835 United Flight history →	SEA 10:52	ORD 17:05	34%	19%	1.0%	72%
DL 637 Delta Flight history →	SEA 10:35	ORD 16:43	38%	17%	1.0%	72%
UA 1265 United	SEA 16:59	ORD 22:56	38%	15%	0.9%	no record
AA 1476 American	SEA 15:51	ORD 22:11	38%	21%	1.2%	no record
AA 3105 American	SEA 11:00	ORD 17:00	39%	19%	1.3%	no record
UA 2369 United	SEA 14:00	ORD 20:14	40%	21%	1.0%	no record
AS 579 Alaska	SEA 11:56	ORD 17:50	43%	16%	1.2%	no record
AS 429 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:29	ORD 16:44	44%	13%	1.1%	56%
AA 2966 American Flight history →	SEA 13:50	ORD 20:16	44%	25%	1.2%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON