Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 20 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2973 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–41%.

Safest bet that day WN 2973 SEA 05:15 → PHX 08:09 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3423 SEA 17:10 → PHX 20:03 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2973 Southwest	SEA 05:15	PHX 08:09	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 3792 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SEA 06:16	PHX 09:18	10%	3%	0.7%	96%
DL 2419 Delta Flight history →	SEA 08:25	PHX 11:20	15%	6%	0.8%	92%
AS 606 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:28	PHX 10:18	18%	3%	0.8%	88%
DL 2442 Delta Flight history →	SEA 13:30	PHX 16:41	20%	8%	0.8%	82%
DL 2449 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:45	PHX 14:59	21%	7%	0.8%	79%
AA 4117 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SEA 11:38	PHX 14:42	22%	5%	0.7%	88%worse than usual
AS 449 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:38	PHX 12:28	26%	4%	0.7%	84%worse than usual
AA 3934 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SEA 18:16	PHX 21:18	26%	7%	0.9%	68%
DL 2698 Delta Flight history →	SEA 18:30	PHX 21:29	28%	10%	0.9%	77%
AS 700 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:44	PHX 16:45	28%	6%	0.7%	81%
DL 2447 Delta Flight history →	SEA 20:30	PHX 23:33	29%	10%	1.1%	81%worse than usual
WN 3783 Southwest	SEA 11:20	PHX 14:10	30%	8%	0.7%	no record
AS 478 Alaska	SEA 15:05	PHX 17:57	31%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 2208 American	SEA 15:10	PHX 18:12	31%	10%	0.8%	no record
AS 417 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:59	PHX 14:50	31%	6%	0.7%	78%
AS 744 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:55	PHX 19:53	32%	8%	0.8%	75%
AS 632 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 19:55	PHX 22:53	32%	8%	0.9%	74%
AS 644 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 20:50	PHX 23:49	37%	8%	1.0%	70%
WN 3423 Southwest	SEA 17:10	PHX 20:03	41%	13%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON