Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Detroit, leaving 14:30, is the safest bet: 51% chance of reaching Pittsburgh on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 412 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 12:52	PIT 20:17	22%	5%	0.7%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:07 → BOS 08:15DL 473	3h 35m Boston	BOS 11:50 → PIT 13:45DL 5731 · flown by Republic	10h 38m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:20 → MSP 05:32DL 953	1h 57m Minneapolis	MSP 07:29 → PIT 10:33DL 845	7h 13m	99%	92%
American Details →	SEA 00:07 → ORD 06:05AA 379	2h 07m Chicago	ORD 08:12 → PIT 10:52AA 4478 · flown by Republic	7h 45m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:26 → ATL 08:15DL 652	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PIT 12:52DL 1345	9h 26m	99%	89%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 22m Denver	DEN 10:05 → PIT 15:16UA 1308	7h 16m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 23:04 → PIT 00:50 +1DL 1351	9h 51m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128	2h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → PIT 16:30DL 1188	8h 00m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	SEA 12:13 → MSP 17:29DL 536	2h 22m Minneapolis	MSP 19:51 → PIT 22:54DL 1134	7h 41m	98%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SEA 00:26 → ATL 08:15DL 652	48m Atlanta	ATL 09:03 → PIT 10:45DL 1363	7h 19m	74%	67%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:15 → BOS 19:43DL 438	47m Boston	BOS 20:30 → PIT 22:33DL 5679 · flown by Republic	8h 18m	66%	53%
United Details →	SEA 10:52 → ORD 17:05UA 2835	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 18:05 → PIT 20:51UA 1946	6h 59m	66%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON