Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AS 610 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–36%.

Safest bet that day AS 610 SEA 07:40 → PSP 10:20 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 3285 SEA 20:29 → PSP 22:50 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 610 Alaska	SEA 07:40	PSP 10:20	16%	4%	1.0%	no record
AS 457 Alaska	SEA 10:26	PSP 13:08	25%	7%	0.9%	no record
AS 322 Alaska	SEA 14:27	PSP 17:09	30%	9%	1.1%	no record
AS 3285 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 20:29	PSP 22:50	36%	9%	1.6%	81%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON