Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:20, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Raleigh/Durham on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 572 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:20	RDU 16:31	25%	4%	0.7%	84%
DL 489 Delta Flight history →	SEA 15:55	RDU 23:55	26%	8%	0.9%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SEA 00:07 → ORD 06:05AA 379	2h 13m Chicago	ORD 08:18 → RDU 11:38AA 4354 · flown by Republic	8h 31m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:26 → ATL 08:15DL 652	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → RDU 11:38DL 2052	8h 12m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:20 → MSP 05:32DL 953	1h 28m Minneapolis	MSP 07:00 → RDU 10:31DL 2783	7h 11m	96%	87%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 06m Denver	DEN 09:49 → RDU 15:16UA 2269	7h 16m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42DL 812	3h 20m Detroit	DTW 16:02 → RDU 17:47DL 1407	9h 17m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 15:48 → RDU 17:22DL 2600	8h 22m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943	2h 56m Minneapolis	MSP 14:20 → RDU 17:51DL 2699	8h 46m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:20 → DTW 18:37DL 1706	3h 03m Detroit	DTW 21:40 → RDU 23:25DL 2839	9h 05m	98%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SEA 07:26 → DFW 13:20AA 1667	50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:10 → RDU 17:51AA 2091	7h 25m	75%	45%
American Details →	SEA 10:22 → DFW 16:30AA 707	1h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:43 → RDU 21:34AA 979	8h 12m	74%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON