tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 33–34% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 601 Alaska SEA 11:45 RNO 13:31 33% 7% 1.0% no record
AS 598 Alaska Flight history → SEA 17:07 RNO 18:54 34% 8% 1.1% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → SEA 12:05 → PDX 13:06AS 2181 · flown by Horizon 1h 55m Portland PDX 15:01 → RNO 16:30AS 2206 · flown by Horizon 4h 25m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128 3h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → RNO 12:09DL 1595 6h 39m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → SEA 10:05 → LAX 12:55DL 2769 3h 55m Los Angeles LAX 16:50 → RNO 18:21DL 4126 · flown by SkyWest 8h 16m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → SEA 07:15 → LAX 10:05DL 1628 2h 53m Los Angeles LAX 12:58 → RNO 14:25DL 3902 · flown by SkyWest 7h 10m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → SEA 09:30 → SLC 12:36DL 1016 3h 39m Salt Lake City SLC 16:15 → RNO 16:52DL 3732 · flown by SkyWest 7h 22m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 2h 37m Denver DEN 11:20 → RNO 12:39UA 2167 7h 39m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → SEA 17:30 → LAX 20:13DL 2861 1h 46m Los Angeles LAX 21:59 → RNO 23:28DL 3929 · flown by SkyWest 5h 58m 91% 74%
DeltaDetails → SEA 17:59 → SLC 21:06DL 1165 2h 14m Salt Lake City SLC 23:20 → RNO 23:47DL 1607 5h 48m 94% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SEA 19:30 → SFO 21:38UA 737 1h 07m San Francisco SFO 22:45 → RNO 23:58UA 1757 4h 28m 68% 46%
UnitedDetails → SEA 14:34 → DEN 18:23UA 333 1h 02m Denver DEN 19:25 → RNO 20:50UA 719 6h 16m 70% 40%
AmericanDetails → SEA 15:21 → DFW 21:24AA 757 1h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:32 → RNO 23:58AA 1273 8h 37m 69% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON