Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3576 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–45%.

Safest bet that day WN 3576 SEA 06:45 → SAN 09:32 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 894 SEA 17:50 → SAN 20:39 · 45% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3576 Southwest	SEA 06:45	SAN 09:32	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 2508 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:15	SAN 10:11	16%	7%	1.0%	91%
DL 2572 Delta Flight history →	SEA 12:14	SAN 15:16	20%	7%	1.0%	82%
DL 2613 Delta Flight history →	SEA 15:15	SAN 18:05	23%	8%	1.0%	84%
DL 2533 Delta Flight history →	SEA 09:45	SAN 12:39	24%	7%	1.0%	82%
AS 1401 Alaska	SEA 07:04	SAN 09:49	28%	5%	1.0%	no record
DL 2672 Delta Flight history →	SEA 19:40	SAN 22:34	30%	9%	1.1%	75%
AS 600 Alaska	SEA 21:08	SAN 23:58	32%	7%	1.2%	no record
AS 621 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:33	SAN 14:20	33%	8%	0.9%	82%worse than usual
OO 9791 SkyWest	SEA 10:25	SAN 13:21	33%	11%	1.0%	no record
AS 765 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:59	SAN 18:46	35%	9%	1.1%	78%worse than usual
AS 1367 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:51	SAN 11:35	35%	7%	0.9%	91%worse than usual
AS 650 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:20	SAN 13:07	35%	7%	0.9%	81%worse than usual
AS 791 Alaska	SEA 16:54	SAN 19:42	36%	10%	1.1%	no record
AS 623 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 20:17	SAN 23:05	37%	9%	1.2%	73%worse than usual
AS 254 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 20:07	SAN 22:55	40%	9%	1.2%	72%worse than usual
WN 894 Southwest	SEA 17:50	SAN 20:39	45%	14%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON