tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AS 468 at 15:48, with a 34% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 468 Alaska SEA 15:48 SBA 17:59 34% 6% 1.5% no record
AS 2142 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SEA 07:40 SBA 10:14 16% 0% 0.0% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → SEA 06:42 → PDX 07:37AS 2432 · flown by Horizon 3h 10m Portland PDX 10:47 → SBA 13:05AS 2317 · flown by Horizon 6h 23m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128 2h 20m Salt Lake City SLC 10:50 → SBA 11:59DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest 6h 29m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SEA 09:30 → SLC 12:36DL 1016 2h 24m Salt Lake City SLC 15:00 → SBA 16:03DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest 6h 33m 99% 79%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 12:20 → SMF 14:17WN 2840 3h 33m Sacramento SMF 17:50 → SBA 19:17WN 4003 6h 57m 100% 76%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 2h 43m Denver DEN 11:26 → SBA 13:02UA 671 8h 02m 99% 76%
AlaskaDetails → SEA 15:59 → SAN 18:46AS 765 3h 46m San Diego SAN 22:32 → SBA 23:44AS 2175 · flown by Horizon 7h 45m 99% 74%
UnitedDetails → SEA 06:57 → SFO 09:06UA 499 1h 23m San Francisco SFO 10:29 → SBA 11:52UA 1578 4h 55m 90% 63%
UnitedDetails → SEA 08:45 → SFO 11:03UA 2831 2h 47m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → SBA 15:17UA 5464 · flown by SkyWest 6h 32m 95% 59%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SEA 06:16 → PHX 09:18AA 3792 · flown by Envoy 46m Phoenix PHX 10:04 → SBA 11:52AA 2928 5h 36m 58% 46%
UnitedDetails → SEA 14:34 → DEN 18:23UA 333 1h 00m Denver DEN 19:23 → SBA 20:59UA 2479 6h 25m 67% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON