Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 3736 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–39%.

Safest bet that day DL 3736 SEA 08:30 → SJC 10:55 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 3727 SEA 21:10 → SJC 23:26 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3736 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 08:30	SJC 10:55	11%	4%	0.6%	91%
DL 3789 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 11:45	SJC 14:15	16%	5%	0.6%	84%
AS 1341 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:14	SJC 09:23	16%	3%	1.0%	92%
WN 3765 Southwest	SEA 09:35	SJC 11:49	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 3897 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 14:45	SJC 17:05	18%	6%	0.7%	85%
DL 4100 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 17:50	SJC 20:14	20%	6%	0.8%	87%
DL 3956 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 20:30	SJC 22:48	21%	6%	0.7%	79%
AS 521 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:40	SJC 15:51	29%	6%	0.9%	87%worse than usual
AS 658 Alaska	SEA 10:56	SJC 13:06	30%	5%	0.9%	no record
WN 3657 Southwest	SEA 13:15	SJC 15:29	33%	7%	0.6%	no record
AS 657 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:48	SJC 18:00	34%	8%	1.0%	77%worse than usual
AS 1303 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:46	SJC 19:58	36%	8%	1.1%	83%worse than usual
AS 403 Alaska	SEA 20:48	SJC 23:01	36%	9%	1.0%	no record
WN 3727 Southwest	SEA 21:10	SJC 23:26	39%	11%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON