Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3768 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–41%.

Safest bet that day WN 3768 SEA 06:15 → SMF 08:11 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1769 SEA 20:00 → SMF 22:00 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3768 Southwest	SEA 06:15	SMF 08:11	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 4125 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 10:10	SMF 12:17	15%	6%	0.6%	91%
OO 164 SkyWest	SEA 09:00	SMF 10:59	15%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 4153 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 14:40	SMF 16:39	18%	6%	0.7%	88%
AS 677 Alaska	SEA 08:17	SMF 10:10	18%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 4131 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 20:25	SMF 22:31	19%	6%	0.7%	91%
DL 4043 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 17:00	SMF 18:57	22%	6%	0.8%	89%worse than usual
WN 2840 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 12:20	SMF 14:17	26%	8%	0.6%	38%
AS 772 Alaska	SEA 11:48	SMF 13:41	31%	6%	0.7%	no record
AS 681 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 19:49	SMF 21:43	32%	8%	0.8%	84%worse than usual
AS 722 Alaska	SEA 21:56	SMF 23:50	33%	6%	0.7%	no record
AS 764 Alaska	SEA 17:18	SMF 19:06	40%	9%	0.8%	no record
WN 1769 Southwest	SEA 20:00	SMF 22:00	41%	12%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON