Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AS 699 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–25%.

Safest bet that day AS 699 SEA 06:40 → SNA 09:26 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest OO 3697 SEA 14:34 → SNA 17:25 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 699 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 06:40	SNA 09:26	9%	2%	0.8%	92%
AS 759 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:18	SNA 11:15	21%	4%	0.8%	86%
DL 3695 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 19:36	SNA 22:28	22%	5%	0.8%	60%
AS 631 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:55	SNA 21:46	23%	4%	1.0%	80%
AS 1357 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:06	SNA 13:55	25%	4%	0.7%	85%
AS 671 Alaska	SEA 17:59	SNA 20:45	25%	4%	1.0%	no record
AS 773 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:46	SNA 16:38	25%	4%	0.8%	87%worse than usual
AS 374 Alaska	SEA 14:59	SNA 17:43	26%	4%	0.9%	no record
DL 1001 Delta	SEA 10:12	SNA 13:02	27%	6%	0.8%	no record
OO 3694 SkyWest	SEA 08:27	SNA 11:16	28%	7%	0.7%	no record
OO 3697 SkyWest	SEA 14:34	SNA 17:25	29%	7%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON