Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 22–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 647 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:41	STL 15:26	22%	5%	0.7%	88%
AS 618 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:33	STL 00:18	26%	8%	0.8%	92%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:20 → MSP 05:32DL 953	3h 32m Minneapolis	MSP 09:04 → STL 10:42DL 1289	8h 22m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:26 → ATL 08:15DL 652	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566	9h 51m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128	1h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:40 → STL 13:33DL 2455	6h 03m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943	3h 47m Minneapolis	MSP 15:11 → STL 16:50DL 1224	8h 45m	99%	82%
United Details →	SEA 07:05 → IAH 13:31UA 2135	2h 00m Houston	IAH 15:31 → STL 17:42UA 6160 · flown by Mesa	8h 37m	97%	80%
American Details →	SEA 00:07 → ORD 06:05AA 379	2h 47m Chicago	ORD 08:52 → STL 10:16AA 2818	8h 09m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:45 → DTW 17:04DL 2324	2h 56m Detroit	DTW 20:00 → STL 20:37DL 1541	8h 52m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403	9h 54m	98%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SEA 11:09 → SLC 14:15DL 1265	55m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:10 → STL 19:00DL 1492	5h 51m	72%	52%
United Details →	SEA 10:52 → ORD 17:05UA 2835	50m Chicago	ORD 17:55 → STL 19:23UA 4412 · flown by GoJet	6h 31m	45%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON