Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 26–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 504 Alaska	SEA 19:58	STS 21:59	26%	5%	1.4%	no record
AS 1347 Alaska	SEA 10:58	STS 12:58	27%	6%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Rosa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SEA 06:42 → PDX 07:37AS 2432 · flown by Horizon	3h 08m Portland	PDX 10:45 → STS 12:26AS 2330 · flown by Horizon	5h 44m	100%	91%
Alaska Details →	SEA 12:05 → PDX 13:06AS 2181 · flown by Horizon	1h 24m Portland	PDX 14:30 → STS 16:15AS 3483 · flown by SkyWest	4h 10m	90%	73%
Alaska Details →	SEA 06:40 → SNA 09:26AS 699	2h 22m Santa Ana	SNA 11:48 → STS 13:37AS 3467 · flown by SkyWest	6h 57m	99%	72%
American Details →	SEA 06:16 → PHX 09:18AA 3792 · flown by Envoy	1h 05m Phoenix	PHX 10:23 → STS 12:50AA 3757 · flown by Envoy	6h 34m	90%	71%
Alaska Details →	SEA 07:48 → LAS 10:29AS 612	3h 52m Las Vegas	LAS 14:21 → STS 16:07AS 553	8h 19m	100%	60%
Alaska Details →	SEA 10:20 → SAN 13:07AS 650	3h 30m San Diego	SAN 16:37 → STS 18:23AS 2258 · flown by Horizon	8h 03m	99%	49%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SEA 11:31 → LAS 14:16AS 738	1h 08m Las Vegas	LAS 15:24 → STS 17:16AS 2458 · flown by Horizon	5h 45m	74%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON