Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 2202 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 07:00	SUN 09:38	9%	2%	0.0%	91%
AS 2322 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 16:25	SUN 19:01	37%	5%	5.0%	63%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hailey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hailey is 1 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 07:15 → SLC 10:26DL 2858	2h 59m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:25 → SUN 14:31DL 3689 · flown by SkyWest	6h 16m	95%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SEA 09:30 → SLC 12:36DL 1016	49m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:25 → SUN 14:31DL 3689 · flown by SkyWest	4h 01m	75%	65%
United Details →	SEA 14:34 → DEN 18:23UA 333	1h 02m Denver	DEN 19:25 → SUN 21:26UA 5734 · flown by SkyWest	5h 52m	70%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON