Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Tampa on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 326 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:13	TPA 16:33	22%	5%	0.8%	85%
DL 358 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:45	TPA 20:19	24%	7%	0.8%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:20 → MSP 05:32DL 953	1h 43m Minneapolis	MSP 07:15 → TPA 11:26DL 2301	8h 06m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:26 → ATL 08:15DL 652	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → TPA 11:29DL 1587	8h 03m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943	1h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 13:19 → TPA 17:32DL 2264	8h 27m	97%	79%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	57m Denver	DEN 09:40 → TPA 15:14UA 1010	7h 14m	93%	78%
Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42DL 812	1h 25m Detroit	DTW 14:07 → TPA 16:45DL 1243	8h 15m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	SEA 17:59 → SLC 21:06DL 1165	2h 44m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:50 → TPA 06:01 +1DL 2077	9h 02m	97%	77%
American Details →	SEA 00:07 → ORD 06:05AA 379	3h 18m Chicago	ORD 09:23 → TPA 13:14AA 2920	10h 07m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:45 → DTW 17:04DL 2324	2h 55m Detroit	DTW 19:59 → TPA 22:35DL 1355	9h 50m	100%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SEA 19:50 → SLC 22:55DL 1239	55m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:50 → TPA 06:01 +1DL 2077	7h 11m	68%	53%
Delta Details →	SEA 12:13 → MSP 17:29DL 536	46m Minneapolis	MSP 18:15 → TPA 22:26DL 2385	7h 13m	65%	48%
American Details →	SEA 11:16 → CLT 19:23AA 854	53m Charlotte	CLT 20:16 → TPA 21:59AA 2022	7h 43m	68%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON