tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2217 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SEA 11:52 TUL 17:32 25% 8% 0.0% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SEA 07:05 → IAH 13:31UA 2135 2h 59m Houston IAH 16:30 → TUL 18:08UA 6171 · flown by Mesa 9h 03m 98% 97%
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:26 → ATL 08:15DL 652 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620 9h 30m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → SEA 00:07 → ORD 06:05AA 379 2h 24m Chicago ORD 08:29 → TUL 10:36AA 4155 · flown by Envoy 8h 29m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 1h 21m Denver DEN 10:04 → TUL 12:59UA 5315 · flown by SkyWest 5h 59m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569 1h 02m Atlanta ATL 14:55 → TUL 15:53DL 1186 7h 53m 94% 75%
DeltaDetails → SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 22:18 → TUL 23:19DL 2043 9h 20m 95% 71%
UnitedDetails → SEA 07:00 → ORD 13:15UA 2618 2h 20m Chicago ORD 15:35 → TUL 17:42UA 4482 · flown by GoJet 8h 42m 94% 71%
DeltaDetails → SEA 13:30 → SLC 16:40DL 1120 3h 50m Salt Lake City SLC 20:30 → TUL 23:59DL 3825 · flown by SkyWest 8h 29m 98% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SEA 07:26 → DFW 13:20AA 1667 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:10 → TUL 15:27AA 2851 6h 01m 75% 50%
AmericanDetails → SEA 15:21 → DFW 21:24AA 757 1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:38 → TUL 23:47AA 531 6h 26m 71% 40%
AmericanDetails → SEA 11:40 → DFW 17:50AA 767 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:36 → TUL 19:53AA 3715 · flown by Envoy 6h 13m 39% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON