Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: B6 577 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–49%.

Safest bet that day B6 577 FLL 06:02 → SFO 09:03 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 590 MIA 16:41 → SFO 19:52 · 49% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 577 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 06:02	SFO 09:03	11%	5%	0.7%	88%
UA 1513 United	FLL 07:57	SFO 11:03	12%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 1257 United Flight history →	MIA 08:00	SFO 11:03	20%	7%	0.7%	90%worse than usual
AA 2753 American Flight history →	MIA 07:15	SFO 10:20	21%	7%	0.7%	92%worse than usual
UA 1141 United	FLL 16:54	SFO 20:11	31%	12%	0.8%	no record
B6 277 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	SFO 23:51	34%	14%	1.3%	62%
AA 2347 American	MIA 20:50	SFO 23:55	43%	13%	1.1%	no record
UA 2810 United Flight history →	MIA 16:45	SFO 20:09	46%	17%	1.8%	22%
AA 590 American	MIA 16:41	SFO 19:52	49%	20%	2.5%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	1h 42m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809	8h 30m	95%	81%
Delta Details →	FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:12DL 1168	1h 13m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693	7h 57m	96%	76%
United Details →	MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045	1h 21m Denver	DEN 11:21 → SJC 13:08UA 1256	8h 31m	94%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON