Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 21 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1918 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–44%.

Safest bet that day WN 1918 FLL 05:30 → HOU 07:18 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4837 FLL 20:01 → HOU 21:41 · 44% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1918 Southwest	FLL 05:30	HOU 07:18	6%	2%	1.3%	no record
WN 3037 Southwest	MIA 05:30	HOU 07:12	11%	4%	1.5%	no record
UA 2314 United Flight history →	FLL 07:00	IAH 08:45	11%	4%	1.0%	97%
UA 722 United Flight history →	FLL 09:00	IAH 10:45	12%	5%	1.0%	90%
UA 2417 United Flight history →	MIA 08:48	IAH 10:42	16%	8%	1.0%	85%
UA 2162 United Flight history →	FLL 13:10	IAH 15:00	19%	8%	1.2%	84%
AA 1347 American	MIA 07:59	IAH 09:46	20%	8%	1.0%	no record
UA 1338 United Flight history →	FLL 18:29	IAH 20:18	23%	10%	1.4%	81%
B6 2179 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 08:00	IAH 09:48	24%	8%	1.0%	81%
UA 1696 United Flight history →	FLL 17:00	IAH 18:56	26%	12%	1.4%	79%
UA 470 United Flight history →	MIA 12:29	IAH 14:23	27%	13%	3.9%	87%worse than usual
MQ 3358 Envoy	MIA 15:29	IAH 17:12	28%	9%	2.2%	no record
F9 1067 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 11:21	IAH 13:12	30%	12%	2.1%	85%worse than usual
B6 2779 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:00	IAH 23:02	31%	16%	1.5%	45%
B6 2379 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 13:45	IAH 15:47	32%	15%	1.5%	73%
UA 1216 United Flight history →	MIA 16:53	IAH 18:56	35%	16%	2.2%	74%
AA 2230 American Flight history →	MIA 20:12	IAH 21:59	36%	14%	1.1%	70%
AA 678 American Flight history →	MIA 14:04	IAH 15:50	37%	16%	3.8%	61%
WN 2613 Southwest	FLL 12:30	HOU 14:15	41%	11%	1.1%	no record
F9 1495 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 12:56	IAH 14:50	42%	19%	2.5%	49%
WN 4837 Southwest	FLL 20:01	HOU 21:41	44%	13%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON