tailodds FORECAST
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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 67 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2133 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–51%.

Safest bet that day DL 2133 FLL 07:00 → LGA 10:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 2600 MIA 18:50 → JFK 21:50 · 51% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
DL 2133 Delta Flight history → FLL 07:00 LGA 10:00 6% 3% 1.3% 94%
DL 2387 Delta Flight history → MIA 06:25 LGA 09:24 6% 2% 1.2% 87%
DL 2165 Delta Flight history → FLL 07:06 JFK 10:00 7% 3% 1.2% 90%
AA 525 American Flight history → MIA 06:29 JFK 09:26 7% 3% 1.1% 92%
UA 2299 United FLL 06:57 EWR 09:58 8% 3% 1.3% no record
DL 2428 Delta Flight history → MIA 07:05 JFK 10:03 9% 3% 1.0% 88%
UA 1864 United Flight history → MIA 07:07 EWR 10:11 10% 3% 1.1% 93%
B6 172 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 06:10 LGA 09:08 10% 4% 1.2% 83%
AA 3205 American Flight history → MIA 06:56 LGA 09:59 11% 3% 1.2% 90%
B6 302 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 07:01 JFK 10:00 11% 4% 1.4% 95%
DL 2339 Delta Flight history → MIA 08:15 LGA 11:16 11% 4% 1.2% 76%
UA 408 United Flight history → MIA 08:48 EWR 11:54 13% 5% 1.1% 88%
AA 1801 American Flight history → MIA 08:40 EWR 11:45 14% 5% 1.3% 93%
AA 605 American Flight history → MIA 08:57 LGA 12:00 15% 4% 1.2% 88%
AA 2341 American Flight history → MIA 08:32 JFK 11:29 15% 5% 1.1% 84%
B6 686 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 07:59 EWR 11:00 15% 6% 1.7% 65%
UA 2387 United Flight history → FLL 09:55 EWR 12:53 16% 5% 1.2% 83%
B6 1002 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 08:07 JFK 11:05 17% 5% 1.2% 72%
B6 872 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 09:43 LGA 12:45 19% 7% 1.4% 74%
AA 2424 American MIA 09:56 LGA 12:57 20% 5% 1.3% no record
DL 1419 Delta Flight history → FLL 19:59 JFK 23:05 25% 10% 1.6% 59%
DL 1498 Delta MIA 11:36 LGA 14:32 25% 8% 2.0% no record
DL 2321 Delta Flight history → FLL 19:33 LGA 22:26 25% 8% 1.7% 62%
DL 1181 Delta Flight history → FLL 15:05 LGA 18:19 26% 11% 1.6% 68%
DL 2465 Delta Flight history → FLL 11:29 LGA 14:24 27% 11% 3.0% 70%
DL 305 Delta Flight history → FLL 15:29 JFK 18:48 27% 10% 1.4% 72%
AA 2062 American MIA 10:22 JFK 13:20 29% 10% 3.5% no record
AA 1135 American FLL 12:11 LGA 15:17 29% 11% 2.8% no record
UA 210 United Flight history → FLL 11:11 EWR 14:15 29% 13% 2.2% 90%worse than usual
DL 1538 Delta Flight history → MIA 15:29 LGA 18:45 29% 11% 2.6% 72%
DL 1473 Delta MIA 11:29 JFK 14:22 29% 9% 1.5% no record
DL 1422 Delta Flight history → FLL 11:12 JFK 13:59 30% 9% 2.4% 72%
DL 1514 Delta Flight history → MIA 15:17 JFK 18:50 30% 14% 2.0% 73%
UA 2433 United Flight history → MIA 11:22 EWR 14:25 30% 9% 1.8% 94%worse than usual
AA 944 American Flight history → MIA 21:51 JFK 00:59 31% 11% 1.5% 64%
AA 2484 American MIA 12:42 LGA 15:45 33% 12% 7.2% no record
UA 1800 United Flight history → FLL 15:52 EWR 18:59 33% 17% 1.6% 61%
UA 460 United FLL 14:40 EWR 17:47 33% 15% 1.5% no record
DL 2300 Delta Flight history → MIA 19:40 LGA 22:59 33% 9% 1.8% 57%
B6 1902 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 22:15 JFK 01:18 34% 17% 2.3% 64%
UA 1611 United Flight history → FLL 12:46 EWR 15:50 35% 15% 1.8% 78%worse than usual
AA 1389 American Flight history → MIA 20:40 LGA 23:44 36% 11% 1.7% 58%
AA 2899 American Flight history → MIA 13:53 JFK 16:51 36% 15% 4.5% 61%
AA 2968 American FLL 17:36 LGA 20:41 37% 14% 2.5% no record
UA 279 United Flight history → FLL 17:44 EWR 20:55 37% 20% 1.8% 69%
UA 2029 United Flight history → MIA 20:36 EWR 23:55 37% 14% 1.3% 72%
AA 2008 American Flight history → MIA 22:00 EWR 00:59 38% 12% 1.7% 62%
AA 2262 American MIA 19:54 LGA 22:56 39% 12% 1.8% no record
AA 897 American MIA 15:27 LGA 18:27 39% 14% 3.2% no record
B6 272 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 11:52 LGA 14:45 40% 18% 2.8% 58%
B6 706 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 20:55 EWR 23:58 40% 21% 2.5% 51%
AA 552 American MIA 14:49 LGA 17:48 40% 14% 3.1% no record
DL 1794 Delta MIA 19:49 JFK 22:43 40% 14% 1.4% no record
AA 1357 American Flight history → MIA 19:50 JFK 23:01 41% 14% 1.5% 56%
B6 2102 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 11:13 JFK 14:15 42% 18% 2.2% 64%
AA 2124 American MIA 16:30 JFK 19:35 42% 17% 3.0% no record
B6 472 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 16:51 LGA 19:50 43% 17% 1.8% 74%worse than usual
UA 1102 United MIA 13:26 EWR 16:28 43% 18% 3.1% no record
B6 106 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 18:40 EWR 21:43 43% 23% 2.4% 57%
AA 2172 American MIA 16:41 LGA 19:47 43% 16% 3.4% no record
B6 572 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 20:00 LGA 22:59 44% 17% 2.0% 55%
B6 672 JetBlue FLL 18:38 LGA 21:37 45% 17% 1.9% no record
AA 2271 American Flight history → MIA 18:12 LGA 21:17 46% 15% 3.5% 57%
AA 2933 American Flight history → MIA 14:39 EWR 17:44 46% 19% 3.0% 62%
AA 322 American Flight history → MIA 19:48 EWR 22:53 47% 15% 1.8% 46%
B6 2702 JetBlue FLL 18:37 JFK 21:33 47% 20% 1.6% no record
AA 2600 American MIA 18:50 JFK 21:50 51% 20% 2.8% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON