Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 34 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1086 at 06:28 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–52%.

Safest bet that day WN 1086 FLL 06:28 → BWI 09:13 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 667 MIA 18:25 → DCA 20:59 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1086 Southwest	FLL 06:28	BWI 09:13	4%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 544 Southwest	MIA 06:20	BWI 09:07	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 491 American Flight history →	MIA 06:19	DCA 09:00	9%	3%	0.8%	93%
B6 1480 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 06:30	DCA 09:04	10%	3%	1.0%	92%
WN 4011 Southwest	FLL 09:28	DCA 12:05	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2848 American	MIA 08:02	DCA 10:43	14%	5%	0.9%	no record
WN 3110 Southwest	FLL 10:18	BWI 13:02	15%	3%	0.9%	no record
F9 2940 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 07:21	BWI 10:18	17%	7%	1.2%	71%
UA 1421 United Flight history →	FLL 12:13	IAD 14:49	18%	7%	1.2%	89%
AA 1612 American Flight history →	MIA 09:52	DCA 12:33	20%	6%	0.9%	85%
UA 2435 United Flight history →	MIA 13:10	IAD 15:53	21%	10%	3.7%	88%
DL 2888 Delta Flight history →	MIA 11:22	DCA 14:05	26%	7%	1.6%	70%
F9 1028 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 10:21	BWI 13:14	27%	9%	1.4%	72%
AA 1893 American Flight history →	FLL 11:22	DCA 14:01	27%	10%	2.4%	86%worse than usual
AA 708 American Flight history →	MIA 22:10	DCA 00:49	31%	10%	1.9%	76%
WN 4696 Southwest	MIA 12:35	BWI 15:23	31%	12%	4.9%	no record
WN 3368 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 12:46	BWI 15:30	31%	9%	1.6%	84%worse than usual
WN 1913 Southwest	FLL 21:10	BWI 23:55	32%	8%	1.6%	no record
WN 3360 Southwest	FLL 19:23	BWI 22:09	32%	9%	1.8%	no record
AA 1595 American	MIA 12:03	DCA 14:45	32%	13%	5.6%	no record
AA 3034 American Flight history →	MIA 15:26	DCA 18:08	35%	13%	2.9%	58%
B6 2080 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	DCA 23:33	36%	17%	3.0%	57%
AA 3216 American Flight history →	MIA 21:12	BWI 23:52	37%	14%	1.4%	57%
B6 1680 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 11:42	DCA 14:15	37%	16%	2.2%	69%
AA 861 American	MIA 13:51	DCA 16:32	38%	14%	3.8%	no record
AA 2897 American Flight history →	MIA 20:21	DCA 22:59	39%	12%	1.9%	74%worse than usual
F9 2960 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 17:00	IAD 19:38	39%	18%	2.2%	54%
AA 2648 American Flight history →	MIA 19:05	DCA 21:48	40%	14%	2.0%	63%
AA 2104 American	MIA 16:07	BWI 18:49	41%	18%	3.4%	no record
B6 2094 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 12:30	BWI 14:58	42%	18%	2.4%	52%
B6 1880 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:47	DCA 21:25	42%	20%	2.4%	61%
WN 1246 Southwest	MIA 17:38	BWI 20:27	44%	18%	2.4%	no record
B6 2994 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	BWI 23:27	44%	20%	2.9%	36%
AA 667 American Flight history →	MIA 18:25	DCA 20:59	52%	18%	4.0%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON