tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: UA 5289 at 18:46 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 5289 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 18:46 ABQ 22:29 19% 7% 0.7% 89%
UA 1597 United SFO 12:09 ABQ 15:43 30% 9% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 1h 09m Houston IAH 12:04 → ABQ 13:27UA 6345 · flown by Mesa 7h 27m 94% 81%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 2h 37m Denver DEN 11:12 → ABQ 12:38UA 476 6h 38m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → SFO 05:50 → PHX 08:01AA 6404 · flown by SkyWest 54m Phoenix PHX 08:55 → ABQ 11:25AA 1352 4h 35m 89% 76%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 06:03 → SEA 08:13AS 620 1h 37m Seattle SEA 09:50 → ABQ 13:53AS 327 6h 50m 96% 73%
UnitedDetails → SFO 14:20 → DEN 18:11UA 1596 3h 36m Denver DEN 21:47 → ABQ 23:32UA 5880 · flown by SkyWest 8h 12m 98% 70%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:15 → IAH 18:27UA 1387 1h 58m Houston IAH 20:25 → ABQ 21:44UA 1381 8h 29m 95% 68%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 15:14 → SEA 17:16AS 630 2h 16m Seattle SEA 19:32 → ABQ 23:25AS 343 7h 11m 99% 67%
AmericanDetails → SFO 06:45 → DFW 12:29AA 2305 3h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:00 → ABQ 16:54AA 9 9h 09m 98% 62%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SFO 20:08 → LAX 21:47AA 3247 1h 53m Los Angeles LAX 23:40 → ABQ 02:47 +1AA 6515 · flown by SkyWest 5h 39m 71% 59%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 16:20 → SEA 18:22AS 68 1h 10m Seattle SEA 19:32 → ABQ 23:25AS 343 6h 05m 59% 40%
UnitedDetails → SFO 14:20 → DEN 18:11UA 1596 1h 09m Denver DEN 19:20 → ABQ 20:44UA 484 5h 24m 68% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON