Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 22–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 4695 SFO 22:35 → ACV 23:59 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest UA 4708 SFO 10:15 → ACV 11:42 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4695 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 22:35	ACV 23:59	22%	13%	3.0%	74%
OO 399 SkyWest	SFO 09:52	ACV 11:08	25%	12%	2.2%	no record
UA 2022 United	SFO 18:43	ACV 20:01	27%	12%	1.8%	no record
UA 4715 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 14:06	ACV 15:41	28%	15%	2.6%	78%
UA 4708 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 10:15	ACV 11:42	29%	16%	2.2%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON