tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Portland, leaving 12:08, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 30% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 1 h behind San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → SFO 12:08 → PDX 13:50AS 235 3h 59m Portland PDX 17:49 → ANC 20:37AS 1455 9h 29m 98% 79%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 07:20 → PDX 09:02AS 1410 1h 28m Portland PDX 10:30 → ANC 13:22AS 775 7h 02m 95% 75%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:55 → SEA 08:05DL 2721 2h 30m Seattle SEA 10:35 → ANC 13:17DL 922 8h 22m 98% 74%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 11:02 → SEA 13:05AS 580 3h 46m Seattle SEA 16:51 → ANC 19:30AS 85 9h 28m 99% 72%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 06:03 → SEA 08:13AS 620 3h 38m Seattle SEA 11:51 → ANC 14:34AS 1333 9h 31m 100% 71%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 13:48 → SEA 15:51AS 656 3h 16m Seattle SEA 19:07 → ANC 21:41AS 582 8h 53m 98% 69%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 15:14 → SEA 17:16AS 630 3h 45m Seattle SEA 21:01 → ANC 23:33AS 711 9h 19m 99% 67%
DeltaDetails → SFO 15:27 → MSP 21:00DL 2159 1h 13m Minneapolis MSP 22:13 → ANC 00:59 +1DL 411 10h 32m 83% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SFO 13:48 → SEA 15:51AS 656 1h 00m Seattle SEA 16:51 → ANC 19:30AS 85 6h 42m 48% 35%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 15:14 → SEA 17:16AS 630 51m Seattle SEA 18:07 → ANC 20:41AS 1408 6h 27m 45% 31%
UnitedDetails → SFO 14:20 → DEN 18:11UA 1596 47m Denver DEN 18:58 → ANC 22:27UA 280 9h 07m 30% 17%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON